Future scenarios and their implications for irrigated agriculture in the Spanish region of Castilla y León
New Medit, vol 10, n.1, (March 2011), pp. 4-16
Jel classification: C61, D83, Q15, Q18
European agriculture is undergoing a deep process of change. The continuous reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy, the volatility of food prices, and the emergence of new driving forces will determine the future of farming activities. Within this context, the main objective of this paper is to analyse the socio-economic and environmental impacts of different future scenarios on irrigated agriculture. For this purpose, simulation models based on Positive Mathematical Programming have been built in order to simulate agricultural producers’ behaviour within these scenarios. The results enable us to quantify the influence of individual driving forces, and provide evidence of the utility of this type of prospective analysis in support of public decision-making in agriculture.
prospective analysis, Common Agriculture Policy, positive mathematical programming, simulation, sustainability indicators