Modélisation économique de l’impact des changements climatiques sur les ressources en eau: cas du bassin de Souss-Massa (Maroc)
New Medit, Vol 15, n. 3, (September 2016), pp. 10-18
Jel classifications: C61, Q15, Q54
During the past past twenty years, Morocco has suffered a permanent water deficit, mainly due to very irregular climate conditions and an increasing water demand.
This low wWater shortageavailability, worsened compounded by climate change, may hinder the country’s economic growth and undermine the growth prospects of many sectors branches of the economy. Consequently, Accordingly, the aim of this present study is to develop aproposes a tool of modeling and decision -making support tool. The proposed approach is based on positive mathematical programming for its calibration. By simulating Usinthe impact ofg climate change impact scenarios, the study results of this study show that the basin’s water resources are substitutable and that a sound water management policy has cannot ignore this aspect and should to integrate both surface and groundwater resources at the same time.
In case of drought conditions, the water marginal value or ‘shadow price’ increases so much considerably (15dh/m3) such that water pricing policy alone cannot provide for result in a rational and a sustainable durable use of the resource.
Water, climate change, dynamic economic model, impact, agriculture.