L’impact des changements climatiques sur le rendement de la céréaliculture dans la Région du Nord-Ouest de la Tunisie (Béja)
New Medit, vol 14, n. 4, (December 2015), pp. 36-41
Jel classifications: Q15, Q54
This article aims to analyze the impact of climate change on the yield of grain farming in the Beja region, located in thein northwestern of Tunisia, on an analysis for the period of 1990- to 2013 period. The yield explanatory variables are climatic performances are climatic variables (rainfall precipitation and temperature), by crop acreage and technical progress. To Therefore, do so, multiple regression models were estimated for the three cereal crops (durum wheat, soft wheat and barley) in the study area under investigation (Beja). Estimates of the semi- logarithmic model showed that yield the performance depends differs in response to varying on the different climate variables, crop acreage area and technical progress.
Moreover, a forecast of The projected the effects of climate change effects on cereal crops, were made using the HadCM3 scenarios, which showed that this at the impact will be more pronounced be heavier in in the long term run in the target study area.
To reduce this negative impact on the cereal sector, adaptation measures must be taken such as stimulating encouragement of research into regarding the identification of a new agricultural technology package adapted to climate change.