Modélisation dynamique de la population bovine en Tunisie: reconstitution du troupeau et estimation de la production de viande
New Medit, vol 7, n. 1, (March 2008), pp. 18-25
Jel classification: Q180, Q120
This work aims at developing and testing a model on the dynamics of the bovine population in Tunisia. Through this model that specifies the biological relationships between the categories making the herd structure over time, estimates on the culling and slaughter rates by category and their variation over the period 1990-2000 were obtained. Estimated values of the structural parameters of the model for the same period will be used to simulate the evolution of the annual herd and the meat production for different categories. The assessed results will be compared with observed data. For the local race, the culling rate proved to vary from year to year with an average of nearly 14.7 % and a high percentage of calves (including females) were slaughtered during their first year. For the dairy race the culling rate was close to 20 % but less stable over time. There was no slaughtering of young females. The application of this model pointed out an important proportion of the uncontrolled slaughter. This modelling work is particularly useful to decision-makers in order not to neglect the real behaviour of farmers with respect to the size and composition of their herds.
model, cattle, breeding females, culling rate, slaughter rate, production, meat